Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (2024)

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Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (1)Is anyone else hoping for the stock market to fall? The S&P 500 index dropped over 10% earlier this year, but it has been on the upswing for the last two weeks. I’m hoping the stock market would fall even more because I haven’t finished contributing to my solo 401k for 2015 yet.

I contributed $1,500 every month last year and I maxed out the employee salary deferral portion of my i401k. The maximum contribution for 2015 was $18,000 for those under the age of 50. I also contributed $2,000 extra as the “employer contribution” to bring my total up to $20,000. The solo 401k enables you to contribute 25% of your income as employer contribution if you’re self employed. The problem is I don’t know exactly how much I can sock away in my 401k until I finish doing tax. Anyway, I’m almost done with tax and the result is I can contribute $24,500 to my solo 401k for 2015. That’s why I want the stock market to drop in the next 30 days or so. I need to contribute $4,500 to my solo 401k before April 15th and it would be niceif the market is down when I do so.

Market Timing doesn’t work

Theoretically, I shouldn’t even worry about it and just pull the trigger right now. Market timing doesn’t work for individual investors for variety of reasons. Let’s take a look at some of them.

  • Dollar cost averaging is easier for most people. Most regular people get paid on schedule and it’s best to invest right away via automatic deduction. If you wait, then you’re more likely to spend the money.
  • Time in the market. The stock market is set up to grow. In the long run, we will see more good days than bad ones. If you have a lump sum to invest, the odds are better to invest it as soon as you can. That way, you will be in the stock market longer and benefit from more growth.
  • Market timing requires 2 correct decisions. You need to know when to sell and when to buy. If you’re wrong on either one, then you’ll lose.
  • Even professionals can’t do it. Less than 1% of mutual fund managers beat the stock market index consistently (after taking expense into account.)
  • Market timing cost money. You need to pay transaction fee whenever you make a transaction. If you do it frequently enough, the fee will nibble away at your portfolio. You also will need to pay tax on any gain. You will need to significantly outperform the index to beat it. Actually, this one doesn’t matter in a 401k because tax is deferred and you usually don’t pay transaction fee in your 401k.

It won’t matter much in the long run

Lastly, it won’t matter much in the long run. $4,500 isn’t that much money. If the stock market falls 10% the day after I invest $4,500, that’s a decrease of just $450. That’s less than .5% of my solo 401k balance. Of course, it would be nice to get in at a low point, but it won’t make much difference in the long run. As long as you keep adding to your 401k, your portfolio should look like this graph below. This is why I max out my 401k every year.

Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (2)

I love this graph and I hope to keep adding to my solo 401k for as long as I can. I use Personal Capital to keep track of my portfolio and it’s easy to check on any of my accounts. You can also check how much fee you are paying in your retirement fund with their 401k fee Analyzer. I’m paying just 0.17% on my solo 401k, that’s pretty darn good. Sign up for a free account with Personal Capital if you don’t already have one.

Disclosure: I may receive a referral fee if you sign up with Personal Capital through the link above.

Are you in the same position as I am and hoping for the stock market to fall so you can pick up some shares at a bargain?

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Joe started Retire by 40 in 2010 to figure out how to retire early. After 16 years of investing and saving, he achieved financial independence and retired at 38.

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Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (2024)

FAQs

At what age should you get out of the stock market? ›

There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.

Should you retire when the stock market is down? ›

In times of such extreme market volatility, you might be thinking now is not the right time to go through with such a monumental change. But experts say you shouldn't let a down market deter you from entering retirement according to your personal goals and plans.

Is 40 too late to save for retirement? ›

Yes, it's very possible to retire comfortably even if you start saving at 40. Regular contributions to your retirement accounts will go a long way toward making that dream a reality. Take advantage of catch-up contributions after the age of 50.

How much money is needed to retire at 40? ›

“A common rule of thumb is to have at least 25 times your annual expenses saved. This is based on the 4% withdrawal rate, which is considered a safe rate to avoid depleting your retirement savings too quickly. For example, if your annual expenses are $50,000, you would need $1.25 million saved,” Kovar said.

How much should a 40 year old have in stocks? ›

The Rule of 100

One of the most widely followed rules says to subtract your age from 100 to find the percentage you should hold in stocks. According to the rule of 100, 40-year-olds should allocate 60% of their savings to equity investments.

How much should a 60 year old have in stocks? ›

For years, a commonly cited rule of thumb has helped simplify asset allocation. According to this principle, individuals should hold a percentage of stocks equal to 100 minus their age. So, for a typical 60-year-old, 40% of the portfolio should be equities.

Should I move my money out of the stock market? ›

The Bottom Line

Instead of selling out, a better strategy would be to rebalance your portfolio to correspond with market conditions and outlook, making sure to maintain your overall desired mix of assets. Investing in equities should be a long-term endeavor, and the long-term favors those who stay invested.

How to retire when the market is down? ›

Consider the following steps to minimize the impact of a down market on your retirement portfolio:
  1. Step 1: Know how much you can spend.
  2. Step 2: Look for ways to reduce your spending.
  3. Step 3: Look for other cash solutions.
  4. Step 4: If you must tap your savings, be strategic.
  5. The bottom line.

Is a recession bad for retirees? ›

Market downturns and recessions are never easy to stomach, but they can be particularly tough for retirees. When you're relying on your savings to pay the bills and those savings suddenly take a hit, it can be nerve-wracking. If a recession is on the horizon, the stock market could have further to fall.

What percentage of people retire at 40? ›

Retirement rates have declined, especially among older adults
AgePercentage Retired, 2002-2007Percentage Retired, 2016-2022
40-442%1%
45-493%2%
50-549%6%
55-5919%11%
4 more rows

How much does the average 40 year old have in 401k? ›

The average 401(k) balance by age
AgeAverage 401(k)Median 401(k)
20s$74,460$29,753
30s$160,517$69,718
40s$344,182$151,274
50s$558,740$247,338
3 more rows

What percentage of 40 year olds have no retirement savings? ›

62% of Americans aged 18 to 29 have retirement savings, but only 28% feel on track
AgeAny retirement savingsRetirement savings on track
18 to 2962%30%
30 to 4475%39%
45 to 5984%45%
60+87%52%
1 more row
Mar 18, 2024

What is a good monthly retirement income? ›

Many retirees fall far short of that amount, but their savings may be supplemented with other forms of income. According to data from the BLS, average 2022 incomes after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $63,187 per year or $5,266 per month. 75 and older: $47,928 per year or $3,994 per month.

Can I retire at 40 and collect social security? ›

The earliest age you can start receiving retirement benefits is age 62.

How long will 200k last in retirement? ›

How long will $200k last in retirement?
Retirement ageLength of time covered by the $200k (assuming a life expectancy of 80 years)
4535 years
5030 years
5525 years
6020 years
3 more rows

Should a 70 year old be in the stock market? ›

If you're 70, you'd look at sticking to 40% stocks. Of course, there's wiggle room with this formula, and it's really just a way to get started. And for many older investors, a 50-50 split of stocks and bonds is what's preferred throughout retirement, and that's fine, too.

How much should a 30 year old have in stocks? ›

But with 30 or so years before retirement, you, too, are young. This enables you to take on investment risk, deploying most of your long-term savings — 70% to 80%, at this age — in stocks and stock mutual funds.

Should an 80 year old be in the stock market? ›

At age 70 to 79, consider a moderately conservative portfolio with 40% in stocks. At age 80 and above, be conservative and limit your stock holdings to 20%.

What is the 120 age rule? ›

The Rule of 120 (previously known as the Rule of 100) says that subtracting your age from 120 will give you an idea of the weight percentage for equities in your portfolio.

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