NCAA Tournament Final Four: UConn Remains Dominant
On Feb. 11, 2023, Dan Hurley’s surging UConn team lost a tight conference game at Creighton by a score of 56-53.
Since then, the Huskies are an outstanding 47-4 with two Final Four appearances and a 2023 national championship. They’re two wins away from a successful title defense. It’s been more than 15 years since any men’s college program did that.
Hurley’s Huskies are one of the most dominant forces in major college athletics right now, which is one of the big reasons why UConn is an odds-on favorite to lift the championship trophy on Monday, Apr. 8.
Still, this year’s Final Four is a very different situation than last season, where it was UConn versus a collection of lower-seeded teams in the midst of magical runs. Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, and Miami didn’t have nearly enough talent to contend with the surging Huskies.
The quality of this year’s national semifinals feels much weightier.
So … Can Anyone Beat UConn?
It’s definitely possible. Last year, when the Final Four arrived, I declared that the season was a wrap for UConn, and that no one would even come close to upsetting them in the last two rounds. The Huskies were -125 to win the title after the second week of the NCAA Tournament, and I praised the intrinsic value of such a line against three clearly inferior teams. They won the final two games by a combined 30 points.
This year, the gap between UConn and its opponents is not nearly as big. Nate Oats’ Alabama team has sunk more talented teams with its effective 3-point shooting strategy.
If UConn beats Alabama, Donovan Clingan will go head-to-head against a worthy frontcourt challenger. We just don’t yet know if it will be NC State’s DJ Burns Jr. or Purdue’s Zach Edey. Both players have proved they can carry a heavy workload in high-stakes games.
At last year’s Final Four, UConn was -125 to win the championship against No. 5 seed Miami, No. 5 seed San Diego State, and No. 9 seed FAU. The Field was +105.
At this year’s Final Four, UConn is -190 to win the championship against No. 1 seed Purdue, No. 4 seed Alabama, and…
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) April 1, 2024
The Huskies are good, and they are a rightful favorite among the remaining four teams. But in terms of pure number assessment, they’re a bit overpriced here.
Considering that last year’s UConn was -125 against a shallow Final Four pool, betting this year’s UConn at -190 (against a Field price of +155) is a clear tax on luxury goods. These final opponents are dangerous teams, and the Huskies are not invincible.
Bettors who grabbed a UConn ticket several weeks ago are in a strong hedge position now. UConn was +800 on Feb. 5; bettors who are holding pre-tournament UConn tickets can supplement with Field +155 tickets and guarantee themselves a winning position.
For those who are getting involved now, the best place to chase value is probably in single-game spread markets. If UConn is overvalued in the futures market, it stands to reason they may be overpriced on point spreads, too.
For those who still want to bet into the futures market, I’d still recommend a bet opposite UConn on the Field at +155.
Final Four Odds
College Basketball National Championship Odds: NC State Remains Costly To Sportsbook
No. 3 Kentucky’s loss to No. 14 Oakland was the big shock of the NCAA Tournament, at least from the early rounds. The Wildcats were bounced by record-breaking shooting from senior guard Jack Gohlke, who connected on an eye-popping 10 three-pointers to send Kentucky packing. His 32 points led all scorers in the game.
At BetMGM, Kentucky was (at the time) the third-most popular championship bet behind only UConn and North Carolina, accounting for 8.5% of all tickets and 9.6% of all handle. Because of Kentucky’s slightly longer odds, the Wildcats remained the No. 1 financial liability for BetMGM in the championship market at the start of the Round of 64, as they had been for most of the season.
“Kentucky’s early exit clears a big loser off the books for BetMGM,” said BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle. “North Carolina and NC State are our biggest remaining liabilities.”
BetMGM cleared UNC from its national championship futures sheet after the Tar Heels lost to Alabama in the Sweet 16. But NC State has been a major loser for the sportsbook, as thousands of bettors have jumped on the Cinderella story over the past few weeks.
The Wolfpack – who were a flat bubble team just three weeks ago – won five straight games to win the ACC Tournament automatic bid, then four straight games to win the South region and advance to the Final Four.
NC State was still +10000 ahead of the Sweet 16, which were the longest odds remaining on the board. The Wolfpack were +4000 to make the Final Four at the start of the Round of 64; those tickets have, of course, already cashed, paying out big returns to all the bettors that jumped on the hype train coming out of the ACC Tournament. It was the seventh-most popular Final Four futures bet at BetMGM.
Now, only the national championship futures remain. And while UConn remains BetMGM’s most popular championship bet by a wide margin with 11.2% of all tickets, it’s NC State that remains the biggest raw financial liability for the sportsbook.
“UConn is a juggernaut and NC State is on a Cinderella run. Both teams have received strong support from bettors,” said BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee. “The sportsbook will be cheering for Purdue and Alabama in the Final Four.”
