They’re a lottery, apparently. They’re not as easy as they look, they say. But is there any slender advantage to be gained in choosing to take the first penalty in a shootout, or letting the opposition get the spot-kicks underway?
Here, we look at some penalty statistics, before delving into what the numbers say about going first or second in the pressure-cooker environment of the shootout. Is there really any logic behind which order they’re taken? Let’s find out:
Penalty Shootout Stats
According to InStat, there have been more than 100,000 spot-kicks given by referees in professional football since 2009.
Of those, roughly three-quarters were scored, 17.5 per cent were saved, four per cent missed the target altogether and the other approximately 3.5 per cent hit the woodwork.
InStat also suggest that players in their 30s fare best from 12 yards – 32-33-year-olds have the best success rate with 77.13 per cent, while 18-19-year-olds have the worst with 74.55 per cent.
And if you’re wondering how perennial shootout losers England fare on pens, in April 2020, a new study in Germanyfound that the Three Lions had scored roughly 90 per cent of their penalties taken during a game, but about 60 per cent in shootouts.
But what about the conundrum of whether to take the first penalty in a shootout, or to allow your opponents to do the honours? What do the stats suggest is the best course of action? Let’s take a look?
Does Going First in Penalties Mean You Win?
In 2018, Dr Ignacio Palacio-Huerta of the London School of Economics analysed 1,000 penalties taken at previous World Cup and European Championships.
From this, he concluded that teams who take the first penalty win 60 per cent of shootouts, compared to 40 per cent won by teams who go second from the spot.
On the international stage at least, that’s a 20 per cent better chance of winning a penalty shootout if you take the first spot-kick – a pretty sizeable difference given how such fine margins can often decide these contests.
Research also found that, in the World Cup, teams who have gone second in shootouts have a 69 per cent success rate rate, whereas sides going first have a 73 per cent record.
Is It Better to Go First or Second in a Penalty Shootout? [CONCLUSION]
More often than not, because scoring the first penalty heightens the sense of pressure on your opponent.
Dr Palacio-Huerta talks about the feeling of ‘lagging behind’ if you go second and are just trying to level the scores, which can put takers off and make them less likely to net.
So, as a general rule, if you’re a footballer of a nervous disposition, it’s best to just get it out of the way right from the offset.
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Research has shown that in a shootout, your best penalty taker should go first. Your second best should go fifth. Order, it turns out, really matters in shootouts.
Some research has suggested that the team that goes first may have a slight advantage, as they have the opportunity to score the first goal and put pressure on the opposing team. However, other research has found no significant difference in the outcomes of penalty shootouts based on which team goes first.
“Before the penalty shootout starts, it is not a 50-50, rather a 60-40 advantage towards whichever team goes first,” explains Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, a professor at the London School of Economics who has long researched the science of shootouts.
2. 3 out of 4 penalty kicks are successfully converted to goals. The overall average success rate of penalty kicks is around 75%. The success rate significantly impacts a team's chances of winning a game, as this is the only advantage a team gains.
The two fundamental components of a penalty shot are the angle at which the shot is kicked and the velocity of the shot. A feasible range of angles is established using right angled triangles and trigonometric ratios.Also, the sides of these triangles are calculated using Pythagoras theorem.
Players have the highest success rate of scoring in the right zone (0.768), followed by the left zone (0.69) and finally the center (0.596). This is the same order of success rate as goalkeepers which is extremely interesting. Success is defined by the player scoring the penalty kick into the goal.
Focus on striking the ball cleanly with the right part of your foot and using the correct amount of power and accuracy. Practice shooting at different spots on the goal to improve your accuracy and versatility. 2. Visualize success: Before taking a penalty kick, take a few moments to visualize yourself scoring.
The penalty taker has a clear advantage, as they can place the ball precisely and choose the direction of their shot. Penalty takers have control over the ball placement and direction, allowing them to exploit the goalkeeper's vulnerabilities.
Each team is responsible for setting the order in which its eligible players take kicks. Each kicker can kick the ball only once. Once kicked, the kicker may not play the ball again. The decision on a re-kick is solely at the referee's discretion.
Penalties that are on target and high in the goal are rarely saved. This is because it is very hard for goalkeepers to reach these areas. However, it requires the penalty taker to trust their technique as there is a small margin for error as they may miss the target if they aim here.
The story is pretty much the same as before. Out of more than 900 penalties since 2011-12, only a handful of them come anywhere close to a penalty's 78 per cent chance of scoring.
Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010) introduced first-mover advantage which states that the team that takes the first penalty kick is more likely to win.
With so little time to react, goalies attempt to guess in which direction a striker will kick the ball, and then typically commit to dive in one direction or the other to increase their chances of making a save.
71). The referee tosses a coin to decide the goal at which the kicks are taken. The choice of goal may be changed by the referee for safety reasons or if the goal or playing surface becomes unusable. The referee tosses the coin a second time to determine which team takes the first kick.
The Albiceleste won two shootouts during their 2022 World Cup victory, beating the Netherlands in the last 16 and France in the final. Of the teams to have participated in more than one World Cup shootout, Germany and Croatia have the best success rates with both at 100%.
Focus on striking the ball cleanly with the right part of your foot and using the correct amount of power and accuracy. Practice shooting at different spots on the goal to improve your accuracy and versatility. 2. Visualize success: Before taking a penalty kick, take a few moments to visualize yourself scoring.
Introduction: My name is Fr. Dewey Fisher, I am a powerful, open, faithful, combative, spotless, faithful, fair person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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